Countriessuch as Romania predicted to experience significant drops in GDP and labor productivity due to excessive heat conditions.
Heatwaves and Their Economic Impact on Europe
A new study published in Nature Communications has revealed that Europe, particularly Southern European countries, is expected to face significant economic losses due to heatwaves in the coming decades [1].
The study, which was also quoted by Euronews, found that Romania is projected to experience economic losses exceeding -2.5% of GDP due to heatwaves by 2055-2064. This places Romania among the European countries with the highest economic damages from heat-related impacts.
Southern European countries, including Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Malta, Spain, and Romania, are projected to have the highest losses, each reaching about or above -2.5% of GDP by 2055-2064 [1]. Greece and Italy are also expected to face significant impacts, with economic losses around -2.17% and -1.46% respectively.
In contrast, cooler northern and western European countries such as the United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium are expected to experience more moderate economic impacts from heatwaves, generally below -0.5% of GDP even in pessimistic scenarios [1].
The research highlights that these forecasts encompass not only direct economic damages but also losses in labor productivity due to increased days with extreme temperatures. For example, ten additional days annually above 35°C can reduce labor productivity by approximately 0.3%, and temperatures above 40°C can cause productivity drops exceeding 1.5%, exacerbating overall economic losses [1].
The OECD report, covering 23 countries and 2.7 million firms between 2000 and 2021, found that both an increase in the number of high-temperature days and the occurrence of heatwaves substantially reduce labor productivity [2]. Europe is the fastest-warming continent on Earth, with temperatures rising at twice the global average rate since the 1980s. The warmest decade on record was recorded between 2010 and 2019.
The study also found that labor productivity losses in Romania were -0.1% during 2000-2004 and -0.45% during 2017-2021. The more recent study estimates Romania, along with Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Malta, and Spain, will be among the countries most affected by increased heat, with impacts reaching or exceeding -2.5% of GDP by the 2055-2064 period.
The projected economic losses due to heatwaves in Romania by 2055–2064 are expected to reach or exceed 2.5% of GDP, placing Romania among the European countries with the highest economic damages from heat-related impacts [1].
Experts recommend robust climate mitigation efforts to curb the rising intensity and frequency of heatwaves. Adaptation measures, like improving workplace ventilation, adjusting working hours to avoid peak heat, or expanding urban green spaces, are also recommended.
Heat stress translates into economic losses by lowering labor productivity in Europe. The impact on labor productivity increases to over 1.5% when temperatures exceed 40°C.
References: [1] Nature Communications (2022) [2] OECD (2024)
- To address the projected economic losses due to heatwaves in Romania by 2055–2064, experts suggest implementing robust climate mitigation efforts and adaptation measures, such as improving workplace-wellness practices like enhancing ventilation, adjusting work hours, and expanding green spaces in urban areas to combat heat stress.
- The health-and-wellness sector, particularly within the workplace, will play a significant role in mitigating the economic impact of climate change, as measures aimed at improving conditions to prevent heat stress could help reduce labor productivity losses in warmer European countries, such as Romania, where climate change is expected to exacerbate heatwaves.
References: [1] Nature Communications (2022) [2] OECD (2024)
