Emerging Pandemic Risks: Research Highlights Regions Highly Susceptible to Zoonotic Diseases
The Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has been working tirelessly to ensure the availability and accessibility of affordable medical countermeasures (MCM) in the face of potential zoonotic disease outbreaks. A recent study, supported by the European Commission's Medical Countermeasures Strategy, has shed light on the drivers of these diseases and the countries most at risk.
The study, based on scientific analyses and public health reviews up to mid-2025, has created a global risk map and an epidemic risk index for each country. Notably, Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo have been ranked as the highest-risk countries.
The key drivers contributing to the emergence of zoonotic diseases with potential to cause epidemics and pandemics are primarily anthropogenic factors linked to human activities and environmental changes. These drivers include climate change, human population dynamics, land-use changes and agricultural intensification, biodiversity loss, globalization and trade in animals, weak animal health systems and surveillance capacity, and environmental degradation.
Climate change, for instance, increases temperatures, alters precipitation patterns, and causes water scarcity, elevating the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks by affecting the ecology of pathogens and vectors. Similarly, human population growth and increased density lead to greater human-animal contact, facilitating disease transmission.
Expansion into forested and natural areas, intensified livestock production, and the movement of domesticated and wild animals for trade amplify the spread and emergence of zoonotic pathogens. Underfunded veterinary services, gaps in disease surveillance, and broader environmental harms also contribute indirectly to zoonotic risks.
Collectively, these factors increase human exposure to animal pathogens and facilitate their spillover and subsequent spread within human populations, driving the emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic diseases capable of causing epidemics and pandemics.
Investing in integrated approaches to animal and human health, enhancing surveillance, and mitigating environmental impacts are essential components of pandemic preparedness and prevention. HERA's focus is on climate-sensitive priority threats, such as Ebola, Zika, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, whose geographic spread and emergence are driven by climate change.
The study highlights the importance of integrated approaches that combine climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness. The index ranks countries based on the maximum risk of outbreak occurrence and their capacity to respond to zoonotic threats. The findings can inform efforts to prepare for and respond to potential outbreaks, ultimately helping to reduce the risk of future epidemics.
The study also demonstrates the value of predictive modeling in identifying high-risk zones and guiding targeted interventions. By understanding the drivers of zoonotic diseases and the countries most at risk, we can take proactive steps towards preventing outbreaks and mitigating their impact on global health.
- The study, funded by the European Commission's Medical Countermeasures Strategy, has underlined that the emergence of zoonotic diseases capable of causing epidemics and pandemics is largely driven by anthropogenic factors and environmental changes, such as climate change, land-use changes, biodiversity loss, and globalization.
- The global risk map and epidemic risk index created by the study have identified Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo as the highest-risk countries for zoonotic disease outbreaks, based on factors like human population dynamics, agricultural intensification, and environmental degradation.
- To mitigate the risks of future epidemics, it is crucial to invest in integrated approaches that combine animal and human health, enhance surveillance, and mitigate environmental impacts, especially for climate-sensitive priority threats like Ebola, Zika, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever.
- The findings of this environmental-science research emphasize the importance of predictive modeling in identifying high-risk zones for zoonotic diseases and guiding targeted interventions, as understanding the drivers of disease emergence can aid in proactive steps towards preventing outbreaks and reducing their impact on global health and wellness.
