Forecast indicates approximately 16,500 fatalities linked to climate change in Europe's summer season, as per research findings
A recent study, conducted by British researchers from the Grantham Institute of Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, has estimated that over 47,000 heat-related deaths occurred during the European summer of 2023. The study, which was produced quickly to link heatwave death tolls to global warming without waiting for peer-review, suggests that climate change could have tripled the number of heat deaths this summer.
Climate and health researchers, including study co-author Friederike Otto, have emphasised that heatwaves are known as silent killers. Atmospheric science researcher Akshay Deoras at the UK's University of Reading stated that the methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust, yet conservative.
The researchers used climate modelling to estimate that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter in 854 European cities between June and August. However, they were not able to compare their estimates to actual excess deaths recorded in European cities this summer because most countries take a long time to publish that data.
The estimated deaths were projections based on methods used in previously peer-reviewed studies, not actual recorded deaths in European cities. Nevertheless, the study co-author, Friederike Otto, stated that the estimates are "in the right ballpark," despite not having real-time statistics.
The actual death toll could be even higher than the estimated 24,400 excess deaths, according to the study. Nearly 70 percent (16,500) of the estimated excess deaths were attributed to global warming.
The study found that Rome had the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change with 835, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409. More than 85 percent of the estimated excess deaths were among people aged 65 or over.
An increase in heatwave temperature of 2-4C can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people. The researchers used similar methods to find a similar result for a single European heatwave that started in late June.
The study's findings have been backed by numerous prominent climate and health researchers. Another related study analyzing 213 heatwaves from 2000 to 2023 was led by Yann Quilcaille at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich.
Despite the study not representing Europe as a whole because some areas, such as the Balkans, were not included, it serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers of climate change for public health. The study underscores the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves on human health and reduce the number of heat-related deaths in the future.
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