Possibility of higher COVID-19 hospitalizations among vaccinated individuals?
In recent times, there has been a growing misconception that vaccinated individuals are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID-19 than their unvaccinated counterparts. However, this perception is a misinterpretation promoted by anti-vaxxers and is based on misleading statistical manipulations.
The apparent paradox of higher hospitalized numbers among vaccinated people arises from a statistical misinterpretation of population proportions and differing risk factors, not from vaccine ineffectiveness. This misconception is rooted in the base rate fallacy and the Yule–Simpson Effect.
The base rate fallacy occurs when people fail to consider the overall prevalence of a characteristic in a population. When most people are vaccinated, the pool of vaccinated individuals is much larger than the unvaccinated group. Even if vaccines are highly effective, a larger absolute number of cases can occur among vaccinated people simply because they comprise most of the population. This does not mean vaccines are ineffective; it reflects the underlying population distribution.
The Yule–Simpson Effect, on the other hand, comes into play due to risk profile differences. People more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 (older adults or those with health conditions) are more likely to be vaccinated early or receive booster doses. This skews the statistics because vaccinated groups may include more high-risk individuals, so a higher raw hospitalization count among vaccinated does not indicate lower vaccine effectiveness.
Despite these misleading statistics, vaccinated individuals have substantially lower rates of severe disease and mortality. For instance, a study found that 2.8% of unvaccinated people developed severe COVID-19 compared to only 0.5% of vaccinated individuals, confirming vaccine effectiveness in reducing severity. Additional research estimates millions of hospitalizations and deaths have been prevented by COVID-19 vaccines, underscoring their benefit.
It's essential to look at meaningful ratios, such as the difference in hospitalization rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, to determine the effectiveness of vaccines. In a vaccinated population, most of those hospitalized are vaccinated due to the high vaccination rate. If 100% of the population were vaccinated, 100% of hospitalized patients would also be vaccinated, but this does not indicate that being vaccinated is worse than not being vaccinated.
In summary, the apparent paradox of higher hospitalized numbers among vaccinated people arises from statistical misinterpretation of population proportions and differing risk factors, not from vaccine ineffectiveness—which is strongly supported by multiple studies. It's crucial to approach such claims with a clear understanding of statistical analysis to avoid confusion and misunderstandings about the effectiveness of vaccines.
References:
- The New England Journal of Medicine
- Statistician Carl S. Bergstrom's blog
- The British Medical Journal
- The Journal of the American Medical Association
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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