Predicting the risk of emergency hospital admission for patients in Scotland through the use of machine learning by statistical analysts
The SPARRA project, an innovative initiative developed by NHS Scotland's Information Services Division, is set to transform the healthcare landscape. This project, which has recently received support from The Alan Turing Institute, is utilising advanced machine learning and artificial intelligence methods to predict individualised risk of emergency hospital admission for a significant portion of Scotland's population.
The SPARRA project's origins can be traced back to NHS Scotland, with its analytical workflow now being refined by statisticians from the Department of Mathematical Sciences. This department, ranked 4 in the UK in The Complete University Guide 2023, offers a unique blend of high-quality teaching and research across a wide range of disciplines.
Key members of the SPARRA project include Dr Louis Aslett and Dr James Liley. Once deployed, the project will produce a score every month for approximately 3.6 million patients, assessing their risk of emergency admission to hospital in the following 12-month period. These scores will be automatically delivered to GP surgeries, potentially informing primary care interventions.
The new model at the heart of the SPARRA project is a super learner of a collection of machine learning models. This improvement involves a careful application of the latest machine learning and artificial intelligence methods, resulting in substantial improvements to both precision and calibration in identifying at-risk patients and judging the level of that risk.
Visit the Mathematical Sciences webpages to learn more about postgraduate and undergraduate programmes, and discover how you can be part of this exciting journey. The department also provides practical experience to support future careers and employment prospects.
This work has been funded by multiple sources, including the AI for Science and Government programme (Turing), Health Data Research UK, The Health Foundation, and EPSRC. The SPARRA project's scores can potentially be used when informing primary care intervention, ultimately aiming to improve healthcare outcomes for the Scottish population.
The SPARRA project's software versions are continuously updated, with the latest being from January 20, 2025. Updates occur immediately upon bug fixes or new features, ensuring the project remains at the forefront of technological advancements.
In a nutshell, the SPARRA project represents a significant step forward in predictive healthcare, leveraging the power of machine learning to provide personalised risk assessments and inform decision-making processes in primary care. As the project continues to evolve, it is set to redefine healthcare in Scotland and beyond.
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