Romania Forecasted for Significant Decrease in GDP and Labor Productivity due to Intense Heat Conditions
In the heart of Europe, Romania is bracing itself for the economic consequences of heatwaves, according to a study published in Nature Communications. This research, which was also quoted by Euronews, sheds light on the impact of extreme heat on labor productivity and the economy as a whole.
The study, which examined heatwaves in 2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018, found that the total estimated economic damages from heatwaves ranged between 0.3% and 0.5% of Europe's GDP. In Romania, this impact is particularly pronounced. The year 2020, which was the warmest year on record in Romania, saw labor productivity losses of -0.45%.
The study further reveals that when temperatures exceed 30°C, labor productivity decreases by 0.2%. This figure increases significantly when temperatures rise above 40°C, with impacts reaching over 1.5%, reaching 1.9% in the worst-case scenarios. The more recent study estimates that Romania will be among the countries most affected by increased heat, with impacts reaching or exceeding -2.5% of GDP by the 2055-2064 period.
This represents 1.5 to 2.5 times the average annual economic losses from extreme heat during the 1981-2010 period, which stood at approximately 0.2% of GDP. The OECD's 2024 report supports these findings, stating that both an increase in the number of high-temperature days and the occurrence of heatwaves substantially reduce labor productivity.
Besides Romania, countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal are expected to face the highest economic losses due to the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves by the period 2055-2064. Europe, the fastest-warming continent on Earth, with temperatures rising at twice the global average rate since the 1980s, is not immune to these trends.
Adaptation measures, like improving workplace ventilation, adjusting working hours to avoid peak heat, or expanding urban green spaces, are also recommended to mitigate these effects. Experts emphasize the importance of robust climate mitigation efforts to curb the rising intensity and frequency of heatwaves.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. Countries like the UK, Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium show relatively lower GDP impacts, generally staying below -0.5% even in the worst-case future scenarios. The study serves as a call to action, highlighting the need for concerted efforts to address the challenges posed by climate change and heatwaves.
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